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Musk says US government contracts will fall below 10% of SpaceX revenue this quarter, from 16.6% last quarter; it is his forecast on X, not reported results
Musk says US government work will be under 10% of SpaceX revenue this quarter, vs 16.6% last quarter. It is his forecast on X, not reported results.
This is a forecast Musk posted on X, not a figure from SpaceX's financial statements. On November 6, 2026, replying to a user, he wrote that government revenue will be less than 10% of SpaceX revenue this quarter and less than 5% a year from now. Bloomberg compares the first number with 16.6% in the most recent quarter. SpaceX has not published the figures Musk cited, and the quarter has not been reported yet.
The essentials
- What Musk said: government revenue under 10% of SpaceX revenue this quarter, under 5% in a year, and he is happy to cancel any contracts the government does not want.
- The comparison: Bloomberg and others put the most recent quarter at 16.6%, and about one-fifth for 2025 according to SpaceX's IPO prospectus as cited in coverage.
- Why it may be falling: The Next Web says AI computing, with Anthropic as the biggest customer, has overtaken NASA and the Pentagon as SpaceX's main source of revenue. That is that outlet's account; we did not verify the contract terms.
- Context: Investing.com notes the post came days after Democrats regained control of both chambers of Congress.
What is not clear about the 16.6% figure?
One report on the SpaceX third-quarter filing describes 16.6% as the share of quarterly revenue from an unnamed customer, down from 23.9%, while Bloomberg presents 16.6% as the government share. We could not reconcile these descriptions, so treat the exact basis of the comparison as unconfirmed.
Does it match what Musk said before?
A TIKR article dated October 6 reported Musk saying government revenue would be under 5% in the fourth quarter. The new statement, under 10% this quarter and under 5% in a year, is a different figure. We did not establish whether they refer to the same measure.
What is not established
- Whether government revenue will actually be under 10%: it is a forecast until SpaceX reports the quarter.
- How Musk defines government revenue: he did not say which contracts count or how the share is calculated.
- What the 16.6% denotes: sources describe it differently.
- The terms of the Anthropic compute arrangement: only secondary reports seen, including an early-2027 exit option reported by The Next Web.
Summary table
| Point | What is stated as of November 7, 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Statement | Musk on X, November 6, 2026 | Bloomberg |
| Claim | Government revenue under 10% this quarter; under 5% in a year | Investing.com (via Yahoo Finance) |
| Comparison | 16.6% in the most recent quarter, per Bloomberg | Bloomberg |
| 2025 reference | About one-fifth of revenue, per the IPO prospectus as cited | Electric Vehicles |
| Status | Forecast; SpaceX has not published these figures | Electric Vehicles |
FAQ
Has SpaceX reported that government revenue fell below 10%?
No. It is Musk's forecast for the current quarter, which has not been reported.
What did Musk say about the contracts?
He said they are the best product at the lowest price and that he is happy to cancel any the government does not want.
Is Anthropic involved?
The Next Web reports Anthropic is SpaceX's biggest AI-compute customer; the post by Musk did not name it.
Method and limits
Sources checked on November 7, 2026. We did not read SpaceX filings directly; figures come from Bloomberg and the other outlets above. Disclosure: Anthropic makes Claude, which helps draft articles on this site. This is not investment advice.
Sources
- Bloomberg: SpaceX Revenue From US Government Contracts Drops Below 10%, Musk Says (verified 2026-11-07)
- The Next Web: Musk says government work will be under 10% of SpaceX revenue (verified 2026-11-07)
- Investing.com (via Yahoo Finance): SpaceX government contracts to be under 10% of revenue, Musk says (verified 2026-11-07)
- Tesla North: Elon Musk Says He's Happy to Cancel Unwanted SpaceX Government Contracts (verified 2026-11-07)
- Electric Vehicles: Tesla, SpaceX Rebound as Musk Plays Down Democrats' Threat to His Companies (verified 2026-11-07)
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